People will bet on anything: football, stocks, the sex of Britain’s royal baby.
Popular Irish online bookmaker Paddy Power is taking bets on who will become the next chair of the Federal Reserve in January.
The odds favor former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers over Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen.
A sampling of people in New York’s Times Square shows mixed feelings about whoever becomes the new Fed Chair. “Based on his relationship, President Obama’s relationship with Summers, I think it’ll be him,” said Chris Brevig from Sparta, NJ.
“My sense is whoever is ultimately appointed will not make a significant difference. The free money will keep going. Wall Street will be happy,” said Robert Carr.
Decision Economics Economist Cary Leahey said “You have this funny situation where the majority of people outside of the White House want someone else, and that someone else tends to be Yellen.”
But it may be harder to keep Asia happy. Several economists say Summers failed to anticipate the Asian financial crisis of 1997 while at the Treasury Department. Danske Bank says many Asians business people found Summers “unnecessarily brutal and non-diplomatic.”
It is a tough job for whoever is named.
ZT Wealth Chief Economist Max Wolff said, “Being the chair of the Federal Reserve is probably the single most important job in the global economy, definitely the single most important job in the U.S. economy”
The Asian currency markets may also prefer Yellen at the helm. Analysts at BNP Paribas said having the more hawkish Summers at the Fed would strengthen the dollar. Summers is also controversial for shocking people with his comments.
“So you got a guy with a hedge fund background, who decided we should be storing nuclear waste in Africa, who thinks that you can’t do math and science if you have a uterus, who was thrown out of Harvard and who isn’t favored by Wall Street,” said Wolff.
The online bets show Summers is the clear favorite, but the real world and many here on Wall Street see Summers as the “odd” man out.